Total power demand is rising by a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of about 6%, which is expected to increase electricity demand from 1,276 TWh in 2021 to 2,172 TWh by the end of the decade. However, despite having over 40 GW of installed onshore wind capacity, the pace of wind deployment has slowed.
Following an impressive CAGR of 13% from 2012-2016, installed wind capacity growth declined to an annual average of 5% from 2016-21. Targets set by the government mean this rate of growth needs to accelerate to 15% over the next decade, according to analysis by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).
Disruptive factors increase the risk of project cancellations
The slowdown can be attributed to a number of factors, such as the introduction of competitive bidding, then, in 2020-21, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic followed by disruptions to the supply chain and delays due to India’s monsoon period.
In 2021, only 1.45 GW of wind was installed, compared with an expected 2.3 GW. This was higher than in 2020 (1.14 GW), but lower than in 2019 (2.07 GW). Four fifths of these deployments resulted from central government auctioning, with the remainder roughly split between state government tenders and the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector.
Fierce competition in the bidding process has led to a concentration of projects in the states of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, which have both the best wind resources and the lowest cost of land. However, this has created bottlenecks, for example in gaining grid access, leading to delays and cost overruns.
In addition, GWEC warns that some projects face cancellation as low-cost bidding in the current tender design leaves no room to absorb inflationary pressures in the wind supply chain. Cancellations have also occurred as a result of delays in signing Power Supply Agreements with the country’s cash-strapped distribution companies (discoms).
The poor financial condition of the discoms continues to hamper state-level tenders for wind projects. GWEC expects about 1.8 GW of state level projects to come online by 2025.
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